Can the US Defy Fiscal Gravity?
David Bianco of DWS says long-term Treasury yields and real rates have climbed to some of their highest levels in nearly 25 years, but he argues inflation is not the main driver. The bigger issues are structural: US deficits above 6% of GDP, a rising total debt-to-GDP ratio, and the need to fund more borrowing domestically as foreign demand becomes less reliable. The US still benefits from the dollar’s safe-haven status, but Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution and former Dutch Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag warn that America’s fiscal path remains dangerous even if its “exorbitant privilege” gives policymakers more time before markets force discipline.
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