The Long View: Claudia Sahm – Thinking Through Scenarios in a Whiplash Economy
The noted economist on the impact of supply shocks, the origins of the Sahm rule, why she thinks the Fed will remain in a holding pattern on rates, and more.
Our guest on the podcast today is Claudia Sahm. Claudia is chief economist at New Century Advisors, the founder of Sahm Consulting, and a regular contributor at Bloomberg Opinion. She has policy and research expertise in macroeconomics, consumer spending, and household finance. She created the Sahm rule, an automatic trigger for stimulus payments in recessions. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve, where she oversaw the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. Before that, she worked for 10 years on the staff’s macroeconomic forecast. She was a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan and a bachelor’s degree in economics, political science, and German from Denison University.
Episode Highlights
00:00:00 Lessons From the Fed During the Global Financial Crisis
00:04:56 Making Sense of Fed-Speak
00:09:29 The “Whiplash Economy” and Understanding Risk
00:14:21 Rising Gas Prices, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Consumer Sentiment
00:18:03 Interest Rates, AI, and Fed Leadership Changes
00:29:48 Undoing the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs
00:33:34 The Sahm Rule and Recession Risk Today
00:43:56 Costs of Underfunding US Economic Data
00:49:57 “Economics Is a Disgrace”
