Oil Drops as Mideast Crude Hits 98% of Pre-War Flows; Man City Guilty Over $1.2B

Oil prices fall as Middle East crude flows recover toward pre-war levels. JPMorgan says regional crude flows have reached 98% of pre-war levels, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline returns to half capacity and Hormuz flows approach late-June highs. Qatar seeks common ground between the US and Iran, while Iran’s Abbas Araghchi strongly denies flexibility on the nuclear issue.
Asian stocks rise, led by technology, while the US 30-year Treasury yield climbs to its highest since 2002. Japan’s Nikkei rebounds ahead of Micron results, Japanese two-year bond demand strengthens and the yen outperforms G-10 peers. China’s economic activity rebounds as stimulus improves the outlook, even as hardware and mortgage-related stocks head for their worst quarter.
President Donald Trump rejects the need for new AI safety laws and describes a new AI accord as morally binding. OpenAI unveils its always-on AI agent, Dots, while Sam Altman discusses AI safety and says an IPO would be ill-advised in a Bloomberg interview. OpenAI is also targeting $30 billion in funding at a $1.4 trillion valuation.
Abu Dhabi pushes ahead with its “Zero Hormuz” strategy, spending billions on ports and infrastructure designed to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, with L’Imad central to the effort after Sheikh Khaled took the helm in January.
Oura postpones its IPO amid market uncertainty, Gold Fields weighs adding cash to its Northern Star bid, and Apple considers an overhaul of the company. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets the UAE vice president in Riyadh.
Manchester City is found guilty of financial breaches, with the league saying financial results were artificially boosted by $1.2 billion through what an independent commission described as “sham” deals. Manchester City denies wrongdoing and has until the end of the week to appeal.
In Kenya, residents challenge construction of Dangote’s proposed oil refinery in the coastal town of Lamu, arguing the project infringes property rights. Petitioners secure a court order pausing construction, while Dangote dismisses the ruling as a normal part of the process. guests includes Rashmi Garg, Al Dhabi Capital Senior Portfolio Manager and Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Chatham House Associate Fellow, MENA.

Horizons Middle East & Africa is your daily spotlight on one of the world’s fastest-growing regions. Live from Dubai, we bring you the latest global markets and analysis, plus news-making interviews, with a special focus on MEA. All that and more, as you head to the office in the Gulf, pause for lunch in Hong Kong, or start your day in London or Johannesburg.

Chapters:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:04:47 – Rashmi Garg, Al Dhabi Capital Senior Portfolio Manager
00:11:19 – Middle East Crude Flows Near Pre-War Levels
00:16:16 – OpenAI Unveils Always-On AI Agent Dots
00:17:58 – Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO
00:29:44 – Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Chatham House Associate Fellow, MENA
00:34:20 – Abu Dhabi’s ‘Zero Hormuz’ Push
00:38:16 – Manchester City Found Guilty of Financial Breaches
00:41:24 – Dangote Dismisses Ruling Pausing Refinery Construction
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