Where Will Toast Stock Be in 1 Year?

Matt Frankel and Toby Bordelon evaluate Toast (TOST): platform strength, margin expansion, and valuation.
They weigh a roughly 20x 2026 adjusted EBITA multiple against more than 20% revenue growth and restaurant-sector cyclicality.
– Business model: an integrated POS, payments, ordering, payroll, and loyalty platform that boosts customer stickiness.
– Growth: about 30,000 net new locations, ARR above $2 billion, and roughly 24% revenue growth.
– Financials: roughly $2 billion in cash, a $500 million opportunistic buyback, and recent net profitability with margin expansion.
– Valuation and returns: trading near 20x management 2026 adjusted EBITA; analysts model 10 to 15% expected returns and medium safety.
– Risks and catalysts: restaurant cyclicality and competition are key downsides; AI product improvements, international expansion, add-on monetization, and buybacks are upside catalysts.
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