I’ve run the numbers. Here’s every midterm 2026 scenario, mapped
CNN’s Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten combed through thousands of polls and ran the odds to figure out what the most—and least—likely outcomes are for the 2026 midterm election to answer a crucial questions: Who will control the power of the purse come November?
0:00 Harry figures out the most likely scenarios are for Washington control after the midterms
0:28 What’s the LEAST likely scenario?
2:45 What is an unlikely, but possible scenario? Let’s look at the math.
5:34 What is the second most likely scenario for the House and the Senate?
8:22 Harry delivers breaking news — a poll hot off the presses
9:51 What is the MOST likely expected outcome from the midterm elections, at over 50% likelihood?
13:31 How will Donald Trump’s approval rating factor in?
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