What do war games reveal about Europe’s security future? | Berlin Briefing Podcast
What can a war game tell us about a real-world security crisis? And is Europe prepared for the threats it may face in the years ahead?
In this episode of Berlin Briefing, Nina Haase, DW Chief Political Correspondent, speaks with Carolina Drüten, International Security Correspondent at WELT and creator of the podcast Ernstfall, which is based on a public war game simulating a Russian challenge to NATO’s eastern flank. Joining the discussion is Roman Goncharenko, DW Eastern Europe Security Analyst and Correspondent, who examines how Moscow views the Baltic region, whether Western governments understand Russia’s strategic objectives, and what future scenarios NATO should be preparing for. Together, they explore the lessons, limits and blind spots of modern wargaming, and what these exercises reveal about Europe’s security future.
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Chapter Breakdown
00:00 A new kind of threat to NATO
03:26 Inside the WELT war game
07:05 The Baltic Scenario
10:54 Strategic blind spots in the game
16:17 Simulating Kremlin thinking
21:55 Key lesson of the exercise
25:54 Beyond the simulation: Hybrid attacks and Article 5
30:13 Germany as NATO’s logistics hub
34:31 Uncertainty around the US’ role
38:01 Real risks on NATO’s Eastern flank
40:34 Future crisis scenarios
45:45 The future of war gaming and security
Why is Germany’s military playing war games? https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uVa6YHQxwLg
English: Ernstfall – What if Russia Attacks NATO? Inside a German Wargame
German: Podcast “Ernstfall”: Was, wenn Russland uns angreift?
Is Germany changing its strategic thinking? New security council explained
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBndacW-TCc
Berlin Briefing won the Publisher Podcast Award for Best Political Podcast Publisher Podcast Awards 2026 – Winners 2026
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